A plain-English explainer from the Repricing Carbon series. New here? Start with What Is a Carbon Credit?
One of the first things that genuinely confused me: a carbon credit is supposed to be one ton of carbon dioxide, always. So why can one credit cost a dollar and another cost a thousand? If they are all “one ton,” should they not all cost the same? They are not the same, and the reason they differ is the whole story of this market in miniature.
A credit’s price is not paying for a ton of carbon. It is paying for how believable, how durable, and how beneficial that ton is.
What actually drives the price
Five things move a credit’s price more than anything else. Once you can see them, almost any price tag starts to make sense.
How it was made
Protecting a forest is cheap. A machine that sucks carbon from the air and locks it in rock is expensive. The method sets the floor.
How long it lasts
A credit that keeps carbon stored for a thousand years is worth more than one that might reverse in a decade. Permanence costs money.
How trustworthy it is
A high-rated credit now sells at a real premium over a low-rated one in the same category. Trust has a price, and the market finally charges for it.
What else it does
A project that also creates jobs, protects wildlife, or supports a community can command more than carbon alone would.
The fifth is the plainest: supply and demand. A credit type everyone wants and few can supply costs more. A credit type buyers are backing away from gets cheap, fast.
What the prices actually look like
To make it concrete, here is roughly how the market splits in 2026. Treat these as ballpark ranges, not quotes, because prices move.
A serious corporate buyer often blends these into a portfolio, ending up with an average somewhere in the tens of dollars per ton, depending on how much permanent removal they include.
Why the spread is actually a good sign
A few years ago, almost every credit was cheap, and the price barely reflected quality. A weak credit and a strong one in the same category often cost about the same. That is no longer true. The gap between a one-dollar credit and a thirty-dollar credit in the same category is the market doing something healthy: it is finally paying more for credits it can trust and less for credits it cannot. The widening price spread is not chaos. It is the market learning to tell quality from category.
Where to go next
So the next time a price looks strange, ask what it is really buying: believability, permanence, and benefit, not just a ton. To understand why the cheap end fell apart and the trustworthy end rose, read Part 1 of the series. And to see what separates a credit worth paying up for, here are the five quality questions.
A note from the author. I am a writer who cares about sustainability, and when it comes to carbon credits I am still very much a learner. There are a lot of people who know this market far better than I do, and I have real respect for the work they have put into building it. If I got something wrong in here, I apologize, and I would genuinely like to hear about it so I can learn and correct it. I am writing this to start a conversation, not to have the last word. That is the whole point. This is a learning experience for me too, and the conversation is what moves all of us forward. If this piece helped you, share it. If you see it differently, even better. Let’s talk.